Will China gnaw Solomon’s staff?

The Qur'an tells a story about the death of Solomon, in which he died while leaning on his staff. The jinn, who were working under his command, continued to labor, thinking he was still alive. His death was only discovered when a creature (a worm or termite) gnawed through his staff, causing his body to fall. This revealed to the jinn that they did not know the unseen. In the same way, we often do not recognize the turning points of history until certain events bring them to light.

For example, after World War II, the United States and the Soviet Union had replaced Britain and France as the world's dominant powers. The world order that had existed before the war—based on colonial national empires—had shifted to a Cold War defined by ideological conflict between the two new superpowers. This transformation was not fully apparent until 1956, when the United States and the Soviet Union pressured Britain, France, and Israel to withdraw from Egypt during the Suez Crisis.

The other example is when the United States led the international coalition to liberate Kuwait in 1991, the absence of the Soviet Union—soon to collapse just months later—was evident. America emerged as the dominant force in a unipolar world order.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, new economic powers such as China and the European Union have begun to rise. However, they have so far failed to truly challenge the United States. On the contrary, they have largely sought to postpone confrontations with the U.S. and to cooperate with it. Trump’s arrogance may make that more difficult in the near future and could push the emerging powers to challenge American hegemony in order to create a multipolar world.

For example, China’s main issue with the United States is Taiwan—a Chinese territory separated by British occupation. China seeks to reintegrate Taiwan, but the United States strongly opposes this to the extent that it deployed the USS Nimitz to the South China Sea to deter any Chinese move toward Taiwan.

On June 17, the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, along with its nine air squadrons and an escort force including five destroyers, left the South China Sea to join the USS Carl Vinson strike group in the Arabian Sea after escalating attacks between Iran and Israel. Will China seize the opportunity to annex Taiwan?

If that happens, a third world war will break out. But anyone who has not yet heard the drums of this war must be deaf. The alliances of this war have been forming since Russia invaded Ukraine—with Western support for Ukraine—then the Hamas attack on October 7 and the subsequent genocide in Gaza, as well as mutual attacks between Hezbollah and the Houthis on one side, and Israel on the other. Then came conflict between Pakistan and India, and most recently, between Iran and Israel. All this puts us face-to-face with a Western alliance led by the United States with Israeli and Indian arms, and an Eastern alliance led by China and Russia with Iranian, Pakistani, and North Korean arms.

But will China take this step now? The truth is, this step is inevitable—but its timing depends on China’s calculations, which are marked by extreme patience and deliberation.